Since the financial crisis, the economy has never been called robust, but it may be in the longest expansion on record, with a couple more years to go.
Goldman Sachs economists said, in a recent note, that their model shows an increased 31 percent chance for a U.S. recession in the next nine quarters. That number is rising. But it’s a good news, bad news story, and the good news is there is now a two-thirds chance that the recovery will be the longest on record.
“The likelihood that the expansion will break the prior record is consistent with our long-standing view that the combination of a deep recession and an initially slow recovery has set us up for an unusually long cycle,” they wrote.
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